Introduction
Man-Made Disaster
Man-made disasters have an element of human intent involving a failure of a man-made system, as opposed to natural disasters resulting from natural hazards. Man-made disasters include crime, arson, civil disorder, terrorism, war, biological/chemical threat, cyber-attacks, etc. From the above listed manmade disasters, Terrorism is the recent and a major cause of human loses in Ethiopia. The Tigray People Liberation Front Terrorists group is a cause for a significant number of deaths of civilians in many areas of Ethiopia among these Mai kadara, Galicoma , Chena , Kobo, Wuchale, Meresa, Gayenete, Deberezebete and Kombolcha are the major places where many death of civilians occurred by Tigray People Liberation Front Terrorists group.
Terrorism
Terrorism is the use of force or violence against persons or
property in violation of the criminal laws of the United States for
purposes of intimidation, coercion, or ransom. Terrorists often use
threats to create fear among the public to try to convince citizens
that their government is powerless to prevent terrorism and to get
immediate publicity for their causes [1].
In Ethiopia, from October 2020 up to now (November 2021
Man Made Disaster occurred particularly by Tigray People
Liberation Front Terrorists group in many parts of the country
especially in Amhara and Afar Regions of Ethiopia. They cause
a large number of death, displacement, violence, material and
resource damage in Amhara and Afar Regions of Ethiopia . In this
short communication, we are interested to disseminate the extent
of death due to Tigray People Liberation Front Terrorists group in
two places, Mai kadara, Amhara region and Galicoma, Afar region
by calculating Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) and this will
help the international community to understand the situation in
our country Ethiopia. The Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) is
a measure of mortality in a study population, relative to mortality
in a reference population. The SMR indicates the relative excess
or decrement in the actual mortality experience in the study population with respect to what might have been expect had it
experienced the force of mortality in the standard (or reference)
population [2].
We calculate the SMR in two places of Ethiopia
1. Mai kadara , Amhara region
2. Galicome, Afar region
The number of observed death due to manmade disaster
(killing by TPLF Terrorist group). In Mai kadara, Amhara Region is
600 whereas 242 observed deaths in Galicoma, Afar Region. The
total estimated population of Mai kadara is 45,000 and Galicoma is
36,816 [3-5]. We use Ethiopia population as standard population
in order to compare deaths rate due to Manmade disaster (killing
by TPLF Terrorist group based on ethnicity) of this two place to
standard population (Ethiopia, crude death rate).
We calculate expected deaths by multiplying study population
with crude death rate (standard rate) of Ethiopia in 2020 which is 6.3
per 1,000. Expected death in Mai kadara is 45,000x6.3/1000=283.5.
Expected death in Galicoma is 36,813 x6.3/1000=231.92. Standard
mortality ratio =observed death / expected death x 100. Standard
mortality ratio for Mai kadara is 212%. 600/283.5=2.12=212%.
In Mai kadara ,Amhara Region , 112% more deaths occurred than
would have been expected. Standard mortality ratio for Galicoma
242/231.92=1.043=104.3%. In Galicoma ,Afar region 4% more
deaths occurred than would have been expected. We have calculated
the expected death from the total study population and not using the
usual formula that is adding the expected death from each age group
in the study population because we did not find the population size
in each age group of the study population. The standard mortality
ratio is a hypothetical rate and our finding is approximate that is
we have used high expected death so our standard mortality ratio
is lower than it would be calculated by adding expected deaths from
each age group in the study population. Our finding shows there is
a significant number of deaths of civilians due to Manmade disaster
(killing by TPLF Terrorist group based on ethnicity) in these two
places Mai kadara , Amhara region and Galicoma ,Afar region of
Ethiopia.
References
- Man-Made Disaster. Monroe County, FL.
- Victor J Schoenbach (2000) Understanding the Fundamentals of Epidemiology an evolving text University of North Carolina School of Public Health Chapel Hill.
- (2020) Rapid Investigation into Grave Human Rights Violations in Maikadra: Preliminary Findings (Digital report). Addis Ababa: Ethiopian Human Rights Commission.
- (2020) Maikadra Preliminary Findings English Final.
- Al Jazeera (2021) Ethiopia calls on civilians to join army to fight Tigray forces.